By Nirmal Chander Vij (The Hindu, January 30, 2017): We should introspect whether we are selecting the most meritorious as Army Commanders and putting forward only the best candidates for the selection of a chief. When the government appointed General Bipin Rawat as the new Army Chief, it triggered widespread debate as two of Gen. Rawat’s seniors were superseded in the selection. The debate also showed the importance of the appointment and the trust the people have in the armed forces. Here I must unequivocally emphasise that Gen. Bipin Rawat is an outstanding officer who will certainly lead the Army with distinction, just as the Army would be proud of being led by him. I wish him all the success. Having said that, let me also make it clear that the two passed-over Army Commanders have excellent records of service, and as stated by the Defence Minister himself, 'their not being selected does not reflect on their performance'. Gen. Rawat’s special operation in Myanmar in 2015 and admirable performance as Vice Chief of Army Staff during the 'surgical strike' last year, among other achievements, helped him clinch the position. In careers spanning four decades or so, it is inevitable that some will have more exposure to certain conditions than others. This despite the fact that officers above the level of Brigadier are exposed to various sectors and operational situations and acquire the experience and qualifications to handle all kinds of assignments. It would also be churlish to imagine rivalry between the Infantry and the Armoured Corps just because an infanteer has been nominated as the Chief. At this high level, to which arm you belong is not a crucial factor because all arms are equally important and have their roles cut out. One can never replace the other. Service chiefs have to possess incisive vision and have deep insights into the broader politico-strategic complexities both at the national and international levels. Exercising acumen at a tactical level or having experience in one particular arm cannot be a criterion for appointment as the nation’s top military commander. Therefore, in all fairness, it is assumed that the government, even while departing from the normal convention of going by seniority, has taken the decision which in its judgment is best for the nation. It is therefore time to move on. Notwithstanding that, people within and outside the armed forces are concerned that the time-tested principle of seniority should not be overlooked unless merit is overwhelmingly in favour of an officer lower down in the hierarchy. The tricky issue here is, how does the government weigh merit without playing favourites? An apolitical ethos of the services has been one of the strongest pillars of our democracy. Any possibility of senior commanders currying favour with the political leadership would therefore be fraught with grave risks for the nation and its military. Such a possibility must not be allowed to influence the selection of the Army Chief. This is an absolute sine qua non. By Shailaja Neelakantan (Times of India, Jan 30, 2017): HIGHLIGHTS: - In 1984, India's acquisition of MIG-29s was a better deal than Pakistan buying F-16s, as the former had superior 'medium-range capability', a 1984 CIA document reveals. - It states further that if India attacked Pakistan's nuclear plants, it would take a while for Islamabad's nuclear program to get back on track. NEW DELHI: The Indian Air Force (IAF) could have 'inflicted major damage on Pakistan's most critical nuclear facilities', in 1984, says a secret CIA document from November of that year. The secret 'intelligence assessment', made soon after then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi's assassination, also said that an attack by the IAF could 'destroy or sufficiently damage the facilities to prevent Islamabad from producing nuclear weapons for several years.' Surprisingly, the CIA document also says that MIG 29s - which India at the time was awaiting delivery of - had 'medium-range capability superior to' that of the F-16s, which were and still are made by the US. Notably, Pakistan possessed F-16s. Because of 'poor command, control, and communications, we judge that Islamabad could not blunt a massed Indian airstrike', the document says. It adds, though, that 'surprise and speed' by the IAF were critical for a successful strike on Pakistan's 'most critical' nuclear facilities. According to the CIA, those facilities were the Kahuta Enrichment Plant and PINSTECH-New Laboratories facility, both of which were just 30 minutes away by plane from India. India's air force was 'larger and better' than Pakistan's, the 1984 CIA document says. 'We believe that the Pakistanis can neither provide effective air defense for their military and industrial targets against a concerted Indian air attack nor seriously threaten most strategic targets in India,' it adds. In the event of an IAF strike on Pakistan, the IAF would have most likely used its Mig-23s and its Jaguar aircraft, the CIA believed at the time. 'The best window for a preemptive strike, in our opinion, would be during November through February. Low precipitation and lack of clouds make visual target identification the easiest in this period,' the CIA document explains. The US intelligence agency document detailing this scenario is one of thousands of recently declassified CIA documents. Source: Stratfor Geopolitical Diary: Deployments of nuclear-capable missiles always send a message, but it isn't always immediately clear who the target is. Chinese media reported Tuesday on the possible deployment of long-range Dongfeng-41 intercontinental ballistic missiles in northeastern China close to Russia, triggering speculation in Russian media about China's intent. One possibility that has been raised is that the move was in response to potential U.S-Russian negotiations over arms treaties. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rebutted the idea, adding that Russia does not consider China's positioning of the nuclear-capable systems in Heilongjiang province a threat. And with a quick look at the Chinese nuclear missile force structure, the Kremlin's reaction makes sense: The nature and capabilities of the Dongfeng-41, along with its deployment near the city of Daqing close to the Russian border, mean that the systems are far more likely intended as a nuclear deterrent against the United States. China has had a nuclear missile capable of reaching the United States since the early 1980s, the Dongfeng-5, but it has issues that have limited its recent effectiveness as a credible deterrent. Its liquid fuel propellant means that it must undergo a lengthy fueling process before it can be launched, and its lack of mobility renders its silos vulnerable to strikes by increasingly accurate munitions. Those threats to its survivability reduce its value as a minimum credible deterrence. China needed to upgrade to a more survivable missile inventory given its historically smaller nuclear arsenal and no-first-use doctrine. By James Stavridis (Foreign Policy, Jan 24, 2017): The set of foreign-policy challenges headed like a freight train at the Trump administration is obvious: the Islamic State and the associated tragedy of Syria; a bubbling North Korea led by an unpredictable dictator with a fistful of nuclear weapons; an angry China hypersensitive about Taiwan and the South China Sea; and Russian cyber-activity roiling domestic political waters alongside Moscow’s ongoing occupation of Crimea and destruction of Syria. But flying under the radar is a dangerous problem not receiving a great deal of attention: Pakistan. As the sixth-most-populous country in the world, Pakistan is home to more than 200 million people. When Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was elected in May 2013, the country marked its first democratic transition between political parties since partition in 1947. Recently, the strength of the country’s nascent democracy has been questioned as Sharif confronts protests in response to the Panama Papers. The nation also faces a virulent terrorism problem from the Pakistani Taliban, which has killed tens of thousands of civilians and troops over the past five years. Since 2006, more than 60,000 Pakistanis have been killed in terrorist events. Looming over all of this are the issues associated with Pakistan’s long, unsettled relationship with India. Pakistan's nuclear arsenal probably contains over 100 warheads, existing as a hedge against a similar Indian arsenal. While under a reasonable level of military security at the moment, the nuclear weapons represent the world's least-stable nuclear capability — with the possible exception of North Korea. By Anupam Joshi: As President Donald Trump takes office, he has also taken up a new, digital symbol of the presidency. Before, during and since the campaign, he used an Android smartphone to conduct his business and tweet prolifically, directly reaching millions of followers. But when he was inaugurated, Trump surrendered that device and accepted in its place a smartphone that has somehow been made more secure. A presidential smartphone is probably the most attractive target imaginable for foreign governments' hackers. Attacking the phone could provide access to the highest secrets of national security, and near-constant real-time information about exactly where the president is, raising the potential for physical threats. Securing a phone like that requires several layers of protection. Beyond overall network security measures, there are several technological approaches to securing a smartphone for special use. The most secure, however, is also among the least practical and least likely: ensuring the phone cannot connect to the internet at all. Source: War on the Rocks: Speaking to the Army War College in early 2015, Deputy Secretary of Defense Bob Work charged the Army with developing a new operational concept to account for the changing character of war, a concept he termed 'AirLand Battle 2.0.' The Army went even further with its work on what it calls multi-domain battle — a vision for future combined arms operations against advanced adversaries. Multi-domain battle (MDB) is an emerging warfighting concept initiated by the Army and Marine Corps, but coordinated across all services. It aims to account for new technologies and adversaries able to contest the United States in all domains, including in cyberspace and the electromagnetic spectrum. This changing character of warfare will demand entirely new ways of warfighting. Near-peer competitors have studied the U.S. way of operating and invested heavily in capabilities to challenge America’s ability to both deploy forces into theater and operate once there (the so-called anti-access/area denial threat). These competitors now approach rough parity in guided munitions warfare. In such an environment, reinforcing U.S. forces will have a more difficult time fighting their way into a theater and will be targeted by dense salvoes of guided weapons once there. In addition, future operations will be conducted in highly contested cyber and electronic environments. By Mikhail Gorbachev (Time): The world today is overwhelmed with problems. Policymakers seem to be confused and at a loss. But no problem is more urgent today than the militarization of politics and the new arms race. Stopping and reversing this ruinous race must be our top priority. The current situation is too dangerous. More troops, tanks and armored personnel carriers are being brought to Europe. NATO and Russian forces and weapons that used to be deployed at a distance are now placed closer to each other, as if to shoot point-blank. While state budgets are struggling to fund people’s essential social needs, military spending is growing. Money is easily found for sophisticated weapons whose destructive power is comparable to that of the weapons of mass destruction; for submarines whose single salvo is capable of devastating half a continent; for missile defense systems that undermine strategic stability. By Pradip R Sagar (The New Indian Express, Jan 28, 2017): NEW DELHI: Madras Engineer Group won the best marching contingent amongst the Services participating in the 68th Republic Day parade on Thursday. Announcing the result on Saturday, the Ministry of Defence claimed that in the category of Para-Military Forces and other auxiliary marching contingents, the Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) contingent has been adjudged the best marching contingent. In the tableau category depicting India's cultural diversity, 23 tableaus participated. The first position went to Arunachal Pradesh (depicting the Yak dance), Tripura took second place (Hojagiri dance), and third was shared by Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. In the Union Ministries category, the first prize went to the Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship. By R Jagannathan (Swarajya): When unemployment and underemployment among youth is the norm, we are not going to find any shortage of protesters, whether for jallikattu or reservations or Cauvery waters. There are enough people with no jobs or hopes of jobs to make a fight of any issue. The violence in Tamil Nadu demonstrates two things: there are malcontents willing to resort to violence, and the growing cohort of unemployed youth is rapidly turning into a demographic disaster in the absence of fast jobs growth. Somewhere between 2011-12 and now, India’s jobs machine ground to a near halt. Unemployment is highest for new or younger job market entrants, ranging from 10.2 per cent for 15-17 year-olds and 9.4 per cent for 18-29 year-olds. By Anders Corr (Forbes): There is increasing talk of U.S. military options against China following China’s incrementalist military tactics of territorial acquisition in places like the South China Sea, East China Sea, and Arunachal Pradesh, as well as its support of North Korea. China’s actions and allies threaten international stability and the rule of international law. Just war theory finds that states have a responsibility to protect the territory of their citizens, uphold international law, and defend justice. For instance, in the case of Mischief Reef in the Philippine exclusive economic zone, the Philippines has an obligation to defend its territory, including by requesting assistance from its treaty ally, the U.S. Enforcing international law and arbitration rulings via options such as a blockade would satisfy just war criteria. By Jeffrey Lin and P.W. Singer: For over 6 years, Huang Wenhua and his team at the Northwest Institute of Nuclear Technology in Xi'an have been working on a potent microwave weapon, which recently won China's National Science and Technology Progress Award. The system is small enough to fit on a lab workbench, making it portable enough for land vehicles, warships, aircraft, and missiles. Generally, microwave weapons shut down electronic systems by bombarding targets with high-powered directed energy pulses between 300 and 300,000 megahertz, overloading circuits and disabling electronic communications, engines, and sensor arrays. By Michael Auslin (AEI): Watching warily as Donald Trump takes office, China’s leaders are contemplating the prospect of a more assertive U.S. president willing to upend decades of Sino-U.S. relations. Trump's approach represents the first major reshaping of U.S. policy toward China since diplomatic normalization in 1979, creating potential trajectories toward trade conflicts and military standoffs over regional core interests. By Crispin Burke (Defense One): Misinformation tactics historically seen in media pranks and manipulation are now being deployed at scale by state actors. Russian propaganda outlets employ bot nets and troll farms to amplify stories and manipulate social media algorithms, generating viral misinformation with geopolitical consequences. Source: The Telegraph View: British Prime Minister Theresa May's visit to Washington to meet President Donald Trump marks a renewal of the Anglo-American special relationship, establishing bilateral political and economic cooperation post-Brexit and steadying trans-Atlantic security ties. By Hal Brands (War on the Rocks): Donald Trump's inaugural invocation of 'America First' represents an explicit departure from 70 years of American leadership of the liberal international order, catalyzing an ideological struggle among internationalists to defend longstanding U.S. global commitments. By Daniel Keohane (Elcano Royal Institute): This analysis examines proposals from France and Germany for post-Brexit EU defense policy reform, arguing that constructive trilateral cooperation between France, Germany, and the UK remains essential to maintain European security coherence. By Nitin Pai: President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) undermines American strategic credibility in Asia, leaving regional allies vulnerable and accelerating Chinese economic dominance across East and Southeast Asia. By William Pitch (RealClearDefense): A critical analysis of Fourth Generation Warfare (4GW) theory as promoted by William S. Lind and Martin van Creveld, arguing that the framework overemphasizes technological determinism and misunderstands historical precedents of insurgency and warfare. By Ryan Evans (War on the Rocks): An evaluation of retired Gen. Jim Mattis assuming office as Secretary of Defense, raising concerns about how the Trump administration might leverage Mattis's esteemed reputation to provide political cover for controversial executive policies. By Keir Giles (Strategic Studies Institute, Letort Paper): An overview of international debates surrounding cyber norms and international law, highlighting the divide between Western nations relying on existing international law and revisionist powers like Russia and China seeking new state-centric treaties. Source: Knowledge@Wharton (Interview with Vijay Mahajan): Discussion on Vijay Mahajan's book analyzing the economic power of three billion rural consumers in developing nations across Asia and Africa and the imperative for businesses and governments to adapt to rural market dynamics. By Mark Pomerleau: A review of a draft executive order by the Trump administration mandating a comprehensive 60-day review of critical infrastructure vulnerabilities, principal cyber adversaries, and national security capabilities.