North Korea’s Nuclear Capabilities: A Fresh Look: Summary of Major Findings in Conjunction with PowerPoint Slides Presented During a Series of Talks Given in DC

INSTITUTE FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY REPORT North Korea’s Nuclear Capabilities: A Fresh Look Summary of Major Findings in Conjunction with PowerPoint Slides Presented During a Series of Talks Given in DC By David Albright Institute for Science and International Security April 28, 2017 Through 2016 One way to summarize the estimates of plutonium, weapon-grade uranium (WGU), and nuclear weapons presented in the PowerPoint slides1 is to use ranges of the medians of each case considered. They are as of the end of 2016: • 33 kilograms of separated plutonium (median value of a distribution). • 175-645 kilograms of weapon-grade uranium, where 175 kilograms corresponds to a median estimate for the case of one centrifuge plant and 645 kilograms corresponds to the median estimate for the case of two centrifuge plants. • 13 to 30 nuclear weapons, where these values reflect the utilization of 70 percent of the available, estimated stocks of plutonium and weapon-grade uranium. The limits correspond to the median values for the cases of one or two centrifuge plants and each weapon contains either plutonium or weapon-grade uranium. • Based on this cumulative estimate, North Korea is currently expanding its nuclear weapons at a rate of about 3-5 weapons per year. • Thirty percent of North Korea’s total stocks of plutonium and weapon-grade uranium are assessed as in production pipelines, lost during processing, or held in a reserve. North Korea keeps secret the number of nuclear weapons that it has built, and there is little, if any, reliable public information about this value. The above range of 13-30 nuclear weapons as of the end of 2016, based on the estimates of North Korea’s production and use of plutonium and WGU, is an assessment. North Korea may have a handful of plutonium-based warheads for its Nodong ballistic missile. --- 1 To be published. 440 First Street NW, Suite 800, Washington, DC 20001 TEL 202.547.3633 Twitter @TheGoodISIS E-MAIL [email protected] • www.isis-online.org