Path to Market for Compact Modular Fusion Power Cores

Executive Summary

This presentation explores the commercialization pathway and development cost constraints for fusion energy, proposing compact modular fusion power cores as an economically viable alternative to traditional large GWe tokamak systems. It analyzes technical readiness levels, financing sources across government and private sectors (DOE, ARPA-E, venture capital, OEMs), and community engagement strategies to accelerate market entry.

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ST_CODE: MARKET

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WOODRUFF • SCIENTIFIC Path to Market for Compact Modular Fusion Power Cores S. Woodruff, J. K. Baerny, N. Mattor, J. E. Stuber, D. Stoulil Woodruff Scientific Inc, 4000 Aurora Ave, Seattle, WA 98103 R. L. Miller Decysive Systems LLC, 813 Calle David, Santa Fe, NM 87506 T. Marston Marston Consulting, 1921 Waverley St., Palo Alto, CA 94301 Fusion Power Associates Meeting, Capitol Hill Club, Washington D. C. 14th December 2011 WOODRUFF • SCIENTIFIC Outline Background: DOE planning, community discussion. Problem: economic fusion 'very distant' Solution: making fusion systems compact and modular opens path to market 12/13/11 | 2 WOODRUFF • SCIENTIFIC Outline Background: DOE planning, community discussion. Problem: economic fusion 'very distant' Solution: making fusion systems compact and modular opens path to market 12/13/11 | 3 WOODRUFF • SCIENTIFIC Grounded in DOE program - Research Needs for Magnetic Fusion Energy Sciences (Report of the Research Needs Workshop, Bethesda, Maryland; Energy Office of Science) [CT Lead] - REPORT OF THE FESAC TOROIDAL ALTERNATES PANEL by PANEL STAFF, NOVEMBER 26, 2008 [CT Lead] - Journal of Fusion Energy, Volume 29 · Number 6 · December 2010 (Special Issue on Innovative Confinement Concepts Workshop, Guest Editor: Simon Woodruff; Springer) [ICC special editions] - "Why Compact Tori for Fusion?" S. Woodruff, M. Brown, E. B. Hooper, G. Miley, M. Schaffer [Lead author] 12/13/11 | 4 WOODRUFF • SCIENTIFIC Path to market 'next step' [Brief Communication: "Path to Market for Compact Modular Fusion Power Cores" by Simon Woodruff, Jennifer K. Baerny, Nathan Mattor, Don Stoulil, Ronald Miller, Theodore Marston; Published online: 13 September 2011, Springer] -> Springer Energy Brief: 'Path to Market for Compact Modular Fusion Power' Soliciting wider input from energy, business and scientific community. 12/13/11 | 5 WOODRUFF • SCIENTIFIC 'Path' widely discussed DOE SBIR program: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Commercialization assistance: FORESIGHT SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Scientific: - Mike Brown (Swarthmore) - John Sheffield (UTK) - Lynda LoDestro (LLNL) - Harry McLean (LLNL) - Bick Hooper (LLNL) - Tom Dolan (UoI) - John Galambos (ORNL) - Brett Chapman (Uwisc) - Uri Shumlak (Uwash) - Ralph Moir - Paul Bellan (Caltech) - Steve Dean (FPA) - David Kingham (TSUK) Business/investment: - Amadeus - NEA - North Bridge - Washington Research Foundation - Ray Williams - Northwest Entrepreneur Network - Lars Johansson, NW Energy Angels - Kevin Doren, Divergent Ventures - Mike O'Donnell, iCopyright - Foster Business School - SCORE - Energy Northwest - Boeing 12/13/11 | 6 WOODRUFF • SCIENTIFIC Outline Background: DOE planning, community discussion. Problem: economic fusion 'very distant' Solution: making fusion systems compact and modular opens path to market 12/13/11 | 7 WOODRUFF • SCIENTIFIC Path to market for energy technology [Graph of Risk vs. Technical Readiness Level (1-9)]: - Office of Science (TRL 1-3.5, High Risk) - ARPA-E (TRL 2.5-6, Medium-High Risk) - Applied Offices (TRL 3.5-6.5, Medium-Low Risk) - VC and Small Businesses (TRL 5.5-7.5, Medium-High Risk) - Private Equity & Large Corps (TRL 6.5-8.5, Medium Risk) - Loan Guarantee Program (TRL 6.5-8.5, Low-Medium Risk) - Gov't Procurement (TRL 6.5-8.5, Low Risk) cf. A. Majumdar, Committee on Science and Technology, House of Representatives (2010) 12/13/11 | 8 WOODRUFF • SCIENTIFIC Path to market for fusion? [Graph of Risk vs. Fusion Readiness Stages]: - CE (Concept Exploration) - POP (Proof of Principle) - PE (Performance Extension) - BPX (Burning Plasma Experiment) - DEMO (Demonstration Power Plant) - PILOT (Pilot Plant) Overlayed with agency/funding domains: Office of Science, ARPA-E, Applied Offices, VC and Small Businesses, Private Equity & Large Corps, Loan Guarantee Program, Gov't Procurement. cf. A. Majumdar, Committee on Science and Technology, House of Representatives (2010) 12/13/11 | 9 WOODRUFF • SCIENTIFIC Development Cost projections circa 2000 [Cost vs. Technical Readiness Level]: - CE: 5M, 5M/yr - POP: 10-100M, 10M/yr - PE: 500M, 50M/yr - BPX: 3Bn, 300M/yr - DEMO: ~3Bn+ - PILOT: ~3Bn+ cf. IPPA Final Report (2000), C. Baker Roadmap (1998), & others 12/13/11 | 10 WOODRUFF • SCIENTIFIC Problem: ~all development remains through OFES - CE --> PILOT development remains trapped under Office of Science / OFES envelope. - BPX: 20Bn (?) - POP: 20M, 10M/yr 12/13/11 | 11 WOODRUFF • SCIENTIFIC Outline Background: DOE planning, community discussion. Problem: path to market 'very distant' Solution: making fusion systems compact and modular opens path to market 12/13/11 | 12 WOODRUFF • SCIENTIFIC Apply 'usual' development cost constraints Market Capital Constraints by Stage: - VCs: (<40M) - OEMs: (<500M) - LGP (Loan Guarantee Program): (~Bn) Stages: CE, POP, PE, BPX, DEMO, PILOT mapped against Technical Readiness Level. 12/13/11 | 13 WOODRUFF • SCIENTIFIC Path to market for fusion [Cost profile fitting realistic funding thresholds]: - CE: fits VC funding scale (<40M) - POP: fits VC/ARPA-E/Applied scale (<40M-100M) - BPX: fits OEM/Private Equity scale (<500M) - PILOT: fits Loan Guarantee Program / Large Corp scale (~Bn) 12/13/11 | 14 WOODRUFF • SCIENTIFIC Cost constraints require compact & modular a) Tokamak - Features: Ohmic Heating (OH) Coil, Toroidal Field (TF) Coil, Poloidal Field Coils (PF1-PF6), R = 2.48m, Height = 7.15m - Power: ~GWe - Cost: ~3Bn b) Compact Torus - Features: Outline of Toroidal Field (TF) Coil, Blanket, Poloidal Field (PF) Coils (PF1-PF6), R = 1.1m - Power: ~GWe - Cost: ~1.5Bn c) Ultra Compact Torus - Features: Outline of CT, R = 0.5m - Power: <100MWe - Cost: 100M 12/13/11 | 15 WOODRUFF • SCIENTIFIC Precedents? • Small number of private fusion companies starting up, filing patents and finding >$100M investment. • Taking VERY aggressive approach: • Many scientific issues attempted in parallel • Uncomfortably short time-lines (for most in fusion) • Highly competitive and often secretive • Now hiring DOE scientists on staff, advisory boards 12/13/11 | 16 WOODRUFF • SCIENTIFIC What to do differently? Fusion is a tough nut to crack: need a broad base of support for success. • ARPA-E could help develop Compact Modular Fusion. • Applied Offices could be engaged in the discussion. • More open discussion of the path to market in OFES. • Engagement of OEMs, VCs, Angel investors • Workshop on 'compact modular fusion'...? 12/13/11 | 17 WOODRUFF • SCIENTIFIC Summary Context of DOE program presented – recent planning for compact fusion systems summarized. Problem: GWe systems don't fit normal commercialization paths. Solution: Make systems compact and modular. Path to market still requires broad org / institutional support, and is not very short (still ~decade away). 12/13/11 | 18

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