The Expanding Nexus between Space and Defence edited by Alessandro Marrone and Michele Nones ABSTRACT The strategic character of space has been recognised worldwide already during the Cold War. Space and defence have continued to benefit from each other’s breakthroughs and know-how and this nexus has been constantly expanding in different ways. Space was born competitive, and has evolved to become an increasingly contested and congested environment. Moreover, satellites have become a critical infrastructure for the societies and economies on Earth. Space is the ultimate frontier for political, technological and industrial competition, with new scenarios regarding space operations led by dedicated military commands. US, China and Russia pursue competitive advantages in the space higher ground, exploiting also innovative digital technologies and dual-use approaches. NATO officially recognised space as operational domain, while the armed forces of US and major European allies are undertaking policy and organisational adjustments. The EU space programme has achieved significant results on Copernicus and Galileo, the former being particularly relevant for the armed forces’ navigation through its Public Regulated Service. Italy is a pillar of the European space framework, the second country in Europe for number of assets in orbit, the third largest contributor to European Space Agency and the home of a complete space value chain. Rome has recently introduced a new space governance, and upgraded the Minister of Defence structures dealing with space: a policy planning office and a space operations command. Building on a solid multi-layered base, Italy can enhance its role in space. Table of contents Executive summary - p. 3 1. The new US military approach to space by Karolina Muti - p. 14 2. Russia and China: West’s systemic rivals on orbits by Giancarlo La Rocca - p. 25 3. NATO and its members: A space Alliance? by Elio Calcagno - p. 35 4. The new UK military approach to space by Elio Calcagno - p. 44 5. The European way to space: What strategic evolution? by Giancarlo La Rocca - p. 50 6. Italy and space, a strong position to enhance by Giancarlo La Rocca and Alessandro Marrone - p. 62 7. The technology dimension and duality by Giancarlo La Rocca - p. 83 8. Conclusion by Alessandro Marrone and Michele Nones - p. 91 List of acronyms - p. 105 The strategic character of space has been recognised worldwide already in 1957, when Moscow successfully launched and operated the first-ever artificial satellite in Earth’s orbit – the so-called “Sputnik moment”. It was a technological milestone in space exploration and a political watershed in the Cold War, prompting the race to the Moon culminated with the US Apollo landing in 1969. Since these first steps, the nexus between space and defence has been constantly expanding in different ways: space was born competitive, and has evolved to become an increasingly contested and congested environment. Over time space assets have become strategic enablers of military operations, in terms of Earth Observation (EO), Position Navigation and Timing (PNT), Satellite Communications (SatCom) and Signal Intelligence (SIGINT). From a US perspective, space has been traditionally interpreted and used as a way to support military operations on the ground. At the end of the 1990s space was declared to be a vital interest for Washington, and then the George W. Bush administration adopted the doctrine of 'space dominance' to guarantee access to space assets in case of conflict. Conflict-oriented concepts gradually gained ground until the declaration by president Donald Trump of space as a warfighting domain in 2018. The expanding nexus between space and defence has been epitomised in 2019 by the US decision to create a new Space Force (USSF) as the sixth branch of the military and re-establish a Space Command within the Pentagon. Russia and China are considered by the US as the 'greatest strategic threats' also in space, as they are engaged to test and acquire operational space defence capabilities, together with ground-based ASAT weapons and space-based (co-orbital) systems. While Moscow is committed to revamp the legacy of the USSR, Beijing started to develop and consolidate its role in space since the 1990s, reaching the status of a mature global space power in about two decades. Both nations actively pursue RPO and anti-satellite testing, underscoring systemic competition. In 2019 the Atlantic Alliance recognised space as a new operational domain, and the 2021 NATO summit declared that attacks to, from, or within space present a clear challenge to collective security, potentially invoking Article 5. NATO established the NATO Space Centre at Allied Air Command in Ramstein, Germany, and a Centre of Excellence (CoE) for space in Toulouse, France. Individual members exhibit divergent approaches, with France championing active space defence and Germany taking a more civil-oriented, cautious approach. The UK considers space an operational domain and has instituted the UK Space Command, setting out doctrine in the Joint Doctrine on UK Air and Space Power. Following Brexit, the UK lost access to Galileo's Public Regulated Service (PRS), prompting national studies on alternative PNT architectures, investments in Skynet 6 for military SatCom, and strategic state acquisition in OneWeb to bolster commercial-military synergies. Europe balances civil scientific endeavors led by ESA with growing EU-level security ambitions. Under the Lisbon Treaty, DG DEFIS, and the EU Space Programme Agency (EUSPA), the EU oversees major constellations like Galileo and Copernicus, alongside initiatives such as GovSatCom and EU SST. Strategic initiatives including the EU Strategic Compass and European Defence Fund (EDF) projects (e.g., TWISTER, SAURON, INTEGRAL) seek to bolster European strategic autonomy. Italy possesses a long-standing spacefaring heritage since the 1964 San Marco satellite launch and encompasses a complete industrial value chain (including Avio launchers, Thales Alenia Space, Telespazio, Leonardo). Through Law No. 7/2018, Italy established a whole-of-government governance via COMINT and reformed its Ministry of Defence structures by creating the General Space Office (UGS) and Space Operations Command (COS). Bilateral initiatives such as the Quirinale Treaty with France reinforce strategic cooperation across Earth Observation, SatCom, and launch systems. Space technology is fundamentally dual-use. Key disruptive trends include the rise of New Space commercial constellations (e.g., Starlink, OneWeb), In-Orbit Services (IOS), Active Debris Removal (ADR), quantum communications, cloud computing, artificial intelligence for Earth Observation, and enhanced Space Situational/Domain Awareness (SSA/SDA). The report concludes with ten key policy recommendations for Italy: (1) Enact a comprehensive national space law; (2) Confirm the military mandate for defence of national space assets; (3) Advance national whole-of-government space governance; (4) Provide adequate human resources for MoD space organs (UGS and COS); (5) Articulate a dedicated MoD space strategy and doctrine; (6) Plan strategic capability development in dual-use technologies; (7) Deepen bilateral (Quirinale Treaty), European, and transatlantic cooperation; (8) Actively shape the EU Space Strategy for security and defence; (9) Contribute proactively to NATO's Strategic Concept on space; (10) Foster an explicit, mature national debate on space and defence. ADR: Active Debris Removal; AI: Artificial Intelligence; ASAT: Anti-Satellite; ASI: Agenzia Spaziale Italiana; COS: Comando Operazioni Spaziali; DA-ASAT: Direct-Ascent Anti-Satellite; DG DEFIS: Directorate General Defence Industry and Space; EDF: European Defence Fund; EO: Earth Observation; ESA: European Space Agency; EUSPA: European Union Space Agency; EUSST: European Union Space Surveillance and Tracking; GNSS: Global Navigation Satellite System; GPS: Global Positioning System; ISR: Intelligence Surveillance Reconnaissance; LEO: Low Earth Orbit; PNT: Position Navigation and Timing; PRS: Public Regulated Service; RPO: Rendezvous and Proximity Operations; SatCom: Satellite Communications; SDA: Space Domain Awareness / Space Development Agency; SIGINT: Signal Intelligence; SSA: Space Situational Awareness; SST: Space Surveillance and Tracking; UGS: Ufficio Generale Spazio; USSF: United States Space Force.