Science & Technology Trends 2020-2040 Exploring the S&T Edge NATO Science & Technology Organization DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited. DISCLAIMER The research and analysis underlying this report and its conclusions were conducted by the NATO S&T Organization (STO) drawing upon the support of the Alliance's defence S&T community, NATO Allied Command Transformation (ACT) and the NATO Communications and Information Agency (NCIA). This report does not represent the official opinion or position of NATO or individual governments, but provides considered advice to NATO and Nations' leadership on significant S&T issues. D.F. Reding J. Eaton NATO Science & Technology Organization Office of the Chief Scientist NATO Headquarters B-1110 Brussels Belgium http://www.sto.nato.int Distributed free of charge for informational purposes; hard copies may be obtained on request, subject to availability from the NATO Office of the Chief Scientist. The sale and reproduction of this report for commercial purposes is prohibited. Extracts may be used for bona fide educational and informational purposes subject to attribution to the NATO S&T Organization. Unless otherwise credited all non-original graphics are used under Creative Commons licensing (for original sources see https://commons.wikimedia.org and https://www.pxfuel.com/). All icon-based graphics are derived from Microsoft® Office and are used royalty-free. Copyright © NATO Science & Technology Organization, 2020 First published, March 2020 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited. Foreword As the world changes, so does our Alliance. NATO adapts. We continue to work together as a community of like-minded nations, seeking to develop military capabilities fit for the geostrategic challenges of today and the future. As such, NATO nations must remain at the forefront of innovation, S&T based or otherwise while facing challenges from all strategic directions and across all operational domains. To do so requires an appreciation of the potential future security environment, especially the military and security challenges presented by emerging or disruptive S&T. Drawing upon the intellectual strength and knowledge advantage of the Alliance, Science & Technology Trends: 2020-2040 provides just such an assessment. The informed insights and information provided will help guide NATO at all levels and the Alliance as we prepare to evolve and adapt to the future security environment and the challenges ahead. Air Chief Marshal Sir Stuart Peach Chairman of the Military Committee Science & Technology Trends: 2020-2040 provides an assessment of the impact of S&T advances over the next 20 years on the Alliance. This assessment is based on a review of selected national and international S&T foresight and futures studies; multi-national workshops; and, technology watch activities conducted by the Science & Technology Organization. I gratefully acknowledge, the collaboration and support provided by Alliance and Partner defence R&D communities, the NATO international staff, Allied Command Transformation (ACT), and the NATO Communication and Information Agency (NCIA). Dr. Bryan Wells NATO Chief Scientist Table of Contents Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vi 1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.1 Context 1 1.2 Purpose 2 1.3 Approach 3 1.4 Overview 4 2 Science & Technology Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 2.1 S&T Development 6 2.2 Assessment 10 2.3 Disruptive Technologies 13 2.4 Emergent Technologies 19 2.5 Convergence, Inter-Dependencies and Synergies 23 2.6 Countering EDT Threats 25 2.7 Summary 25 3 Contextual Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 3.1 Introduction 27 3.2 Innovation and Investment 27 3.3 Strategic Drivers 30 3.4 Defence and Security 37 4 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Appendices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 A Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 B Artificial Intelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 C Autonomy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 D Quantum Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 E Space Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 F Hypersonics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 G Biotechnology & Human Enhancement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 H Novel Materials and Manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 I Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 I.1 Description 112 I.2 NATO Reports and Studies 112 I.3 NATO STO Technology Watch 114 I.4 Workshops 117 I.5 Alliance and Partner Research Programs 117 I.6 Attention Analysis 118 I.7 Studies and Meta-Analyses 121 Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 Symbols, Abbreviations and Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 Science & Technology Trends: 2020-2040 provides an assessment of emerging or disruptive Science & Technologies (S&T) and their potential impact on NATO military operations, defence capabilities, and political decision space. This assessment draws upon the collective insights of the NATO Science & Technology Organization (STO), its collaborative network of over 6000 active scientists, analysts, researchers, and engineers, and associated research facilities. These insights have been combined with an extensive review of the open-source S&T futures literature and selected national research programs. The report aims to assist current and future military and civilian decision-makers in understanding emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs). In particular, it focuses on: • Why EDTs are important to future Alliance activities; • How they are expected to develop over time; and, • What this will mean to the Alliance from an operational, organisational or enterprise perspective? Ultimately, this assessment is intended to provide focus to Alliance S&T efforts and will: (1) at senior level provides an overview of the threats and opportunities presented by EDTs; (2) at a staff level, assist in guiding the design of future military concepts and capabilities; and, (3) overall, aid policymakers in preparing Alliance forces and the NATO enterprise for mission success in the future security environment. Over the next 20 years, four overarching characteristics can be expected to define many key advanced military technologies: • Intelligent: Exploit integrated AI, knowledge-focused analytic capabilities, and symbiotic AI-human intelligence to provide disruptive applications across the technological spectrum; • Interconnected: Exploit the network of virtual and physical domains, including networks of sensors, organisations, individuals and autonomous agents, linked via new encryption methods and distributed ledger technologies; • Distributed: Employ decentralised and ubiquitous large-scale sensing, storage, and computation to achieve new disruptive military effects; and, • Digital: Digitally blend human, physical and information domains to support novel disruptive effects. Technologies with these characteristics are bound to increase the Alliance's operational and organisational effectiveness through: the development of a knowledge and decision advantage; leveraging of emergent trusted data sources; increased effectiveness of mesh capabilities across all operational domains and instruments of power; and, adapting to a future security environment replete with cheap, distributed and globally available technologies. Eight highly interrelated S&T areas were considered to be major strategic disruptors over the next 20-years. The first seven EDTs were approved by Defence Ministers in October 2019, while an eighth (Materials) was added as an area for future consideration and development by the STO. These S&T areas are either currently in nascent stages of development or are undergoing rapid revolutionary development. The EDTs are: Data, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Autonomy, Space, Hypersonics, Quantum, Biotechnology, Materials. Technological development in Data, AI, Autonomy, Space and Hypersonics are seen to be predominately disruptive in nature, as developments in these areas build upon long histories of supporting technological development. As such, significant or revolutionary disruption of military capabilities is either already on-going or will have a significant impact over the next 5-10 years. New developments in Quantum, Biotechnology and Materials are assessed as being emergent, requiring significantly more time (10 - 20 years) before their disruptive natures are fully felt on military capabilities. Disruptive effects will most likely occur through combinations of EDTs and the complex interactions between them. The following synergies and inter-dependencies are projected to be highly influential for the development of future military capabilities: • Data-AI-Autonomy: The synergistic combination of Autonomy, Big Data and AI using intelligent, widely distributed, and cheap sensors alongside autonomous entities (physical or virtual) will leverage new technologies and methods to yield a potential military strategic and operational decision advantage. • Data-AI-Biotechnology: AI, in-concert with Big Data, will contribute to the design of new drugs, purposeful genetic modifications, direct manipulation of biochemical reactions, and living sensors. • Data-AI-Materials: AI, in-concert with Big Data, will contribute to the design of new materials with unique physical properties. In particular, this will support further developments in the use of 2-D materials and novel designs. • Data-Quantum: Over a 15 - 20-year horizon, quantum technologies will increase C4ISR data collection, processing and exploitation capabilities, through significantly increased sensor capabilities, secure communications, and computing. • Space-Quantum: Space-based quantum sensors, facilitated by Quantum Key Distribution communication, will lead to an entirely different class of sensors suitable for deployment on satellites. Increasingly commercial, smaller, lower power, more sensitive and more distributed space-based sensor networks enabled by quantum sensors will be an essential aspect of the future military ISR architecture in 20 years. • Space-Hypersonics-Materials: Development of exotic materials, novel designs, miniaturisation, energy storage, manufacturing methods and propulsion will be necessary to fully exploit space and hypersonic environments by reducing costs, increasing reliability, improving performance and facilitating the production of inexpensive task-tailored on-demand systems. Alliance forces and a NATO enterprise enabled by EDTs will expand the Alliance's ability to operate in rapidly evolving operational environments, such as space, cyber (including the information sphere) and urban areas. However, NATO will be challenged to ensure legal, policy, economic and organisational constraints are properly considered early on in the development of these technologies. 1. Introduction Prediction: “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.” - Nils Bohr [1] 1.1 Context NATO, as an alliance of like-minded countries, strives for peace, security, and stability across the Euro-Atlantic area. It continues to provide the essential framework for defence and security collaboration across the operational spectrum, be it collective defence, crisis management or cooperative security. But today's NATO faces a dangerous, unpredictable, and fluid security environment, with existential challenges and threats from all strategic directions including state and non-state actors; near-peer military forces; cyber threats; space; terrorism; hybrid warfare; and, information operations. NATO is the most successful alliance in history, preserving peace and stability around the world for an unprecedented seven decades. This success is built upon the military and political framework that NATO provides for consultation, collaboration, coordination, interoperability, effective deterrence and, ultimately, united action. A key enabler of this accomplishment has been the NATO S&T community (the original NATO innovation engine), which has provided NATO with the intellectual and technological edge needed to ensure Alliance success across the operational and diplomatic spectrum. Building an alliance capable of reacting to current and future needs over a broad range of potential operations requires a delicate balance between the needs of today and those of decades to come. Getting it right begins with a clear understanding of the S&T landscape, especially the enabling and destabilising role of emerging or disruptive technology (EDT). If NATO is to maintain the intellectual, technological, scientific and innovation edge [2] that it has enjoyed over the preceding 70 years, it will need to fully understand these developments, their potential use and the operational and strategic implications. Further, it will need to creatively engage the entire alliance to adapt to the associated threats and opportunities, leveraging the unmatched financial and intellectual capital available. The Science and Technology Office (STO), plays a decisive role in supporting innovation; providing deep insights into alliance challenges; ensuring the integration of Alliance capabilities; and making available an interconnected network of science and knowledge workers capable of providing evidence-based advice to NATO, as well as alliance members and partners (Figure 1.1). At its core, the role of NATO's S&T community is to [3]: “... maintain NATO's scientific and technological advantage by generating, sharing and utilising advanced scientific knowledge, technological developments and innovation to support the alliance's core tasks.” The impact S&T has had on the defence capabilities of the alliance and nations as a whole has been profound [4, 5]. Over the past 70 years, NATO has effectively employed a strategy of technology [6, 7], leveraging a decision and S&T advantage to significant intellectual, political, economic and military effect. However, in recent years, this intellectual and technological edge has been degraded due to many strategic, economic, social and technical challenges. The concerns about losing this technological edge are very real [4, 8]. As noted by NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg [9]: “NATO's technological edge has always been an essential enabler of its ability to deter and defend against potential adversaries. Our future security will depend on our ability to understand, adopt and implement technologies such as Artificial Intelligence, autonomy, and hypersonic systems. In October 2019, Defence Ministers approved an Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (EDT) roadmap to help structure NATO's work across key technology areas, and enable Allies to consider these technologies' implications for deterrence and defence, capability development, legal and ethical norms, and arms control aspects.” 1.2 Purpose Science & Technology Trends (2020-2040) provides context for the work that will underpin the development of the EDT roadmap. The core objective is to increase the level of understanding within the Alliance of the potential for S&T developments to enhance or threaten Alliance military operations. As such, the report is an aide to decision-makers in considering: • Why emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) will be important to future Alliance activities; • How these EDTs may develop over time; and, • What developments and potential consequences are expected for the alliance in the short, medium and long term. Anticipating the future security environment better than potential adversaries is one way in which the alliance has maintained a competitive advantage. S&T foresight is a critical aspect of this preparation. It does not attempt to predict the future in detail (a difficult task at best, and impossible at worst), instead it seeks to provide a context for anticipating the potential development and impact of technology on future Alliance operations. Analyses of technology trends and the associated process of technology watch are critical steps to identify new militarily important technologies and communicate the potential impact of these technologies on NATO and national leadership. Those technologies so identified hold the promise to enable the development of disruptive military capabilities for both Alliance (BLUE) and potential adversarial (RED) forces. To explore the implications of these changes the report provides an assessment of S&T trends (emerging and/or disruptive technologies) projected to impact NATO operations, capability development and core functions over the next 20 years. These S&T areas are broad, have significant overlaps and are expected to: • Mature over a 20 year period; • Be transformative or revolutionary in nature; and, • Be emergent or create generational shifts in S&T development. The NATO Science and Technology Office (STO) has the responsibility to provide these assessments for NATO. As stated in the STO charter (2012) [3]: “To fulfil its mission, the STO will ... provide advice to NATO and Nations' leadership on significant S&T issues, including the identification of emerging technologies, and the assessment of their impact on defence and security.” 1.3 Approach This report aims to reach a wide audience, both inside and outside of NATO and its partners. We do so to stimulate a frank and open discussion as to potential opportunities and risks presented by technological developments over the next 20 years. As such, the report is based strictly on: • Technology trends discussed in the open literature; • A global perspective on technological progress; • Logical reasoning informed by S&T expertise; and, Candidate S&T trends, as well as disruptive and emerging technologies, were identified using the following considerations: • Are likely to be realised in a non-cost prohibitive manner within the next 20 years; • Will present a significant challenge to Alliance forces (e.g. survivability, defence, C4ISR, etc.); and, • Will significantly impact Alliance capability or planning decisions (i.e. decision making, countermeasures, etc.) Science & Technology Trends: 2020-2040 supersedes the STO Technology Trends (2017) report [10], but draws upon its foundations, insights and lessons learned. Further, the report exploits a broad range of open-source reports, internal assessments and futures studies to develop a comprehensive understanding of the future technology landscape. These sources include: • Existing NATO S&T trend and future security environment studies, discussions and assessments; • Technology watch activities conducted by the S&T Organisation, including existing Technology Watch Cards (TWC) (current as of Feb 2019) and Von Karman Horizon Scans (vKHS); • Meta-analyses and reviews of open source technology watch and futures research articles/reports, from defence, security and industry sources; • NATO-sponsored EDT workshops and innovation system engagements; and, • Alliance and partner EDT studies and research programs. Taken together, and in consultation with NATO staffs, a picture of the future technological landscape was developed and a sub-set of S&T areas selected. This subset highlighted the S&T areas most likely to disrupt NATO and Alliance nations and was later consolidated with an EDT taxonomy and roadmap approved by Defence Ministers in October 2019. An additional EDT (Novel Materials and Agile Manufacturing) was added for this report. Each EDT is further broken down into capability and technology focus areas, highlighting specific areas that will require development and research. Appendix I discusses this decomposition in further detail. In reading this report, several caveats should be kept in mind: 1. The prediction of S&T trends is a difficult task, although there is some evidence that such studies have been successful at anticipating S&T development within broad time horizons [11]; 2. Technologies rarely evolve in a simple linear fashion, and complex synergies between EDTs are often as crucial as the EDTs themselves; 3. The list of EDTs provides a grouping of related technologies capable of technological disruption. The development of sub-technologies may be very different than the aggregate. Further, such a grouping is not unique, and one finds many such taxonomies in the literature. All such clusters, or taxonomies, are simplifications; however, this particular clustering of technologies has proven useful for our purposes; and, 4. Technology has historically driven the changing nature of human conflict, but not conflict itself [12]. In this context “technology is neither good nor bad; nor is it neutral” (Krazberg's First Law of Technology [13]). New technologies will inevitably be used in conflict, and it is necessary to understand how that might occur. This understanding provides a necessary first step to support technology-policy decisions, potential capability development and prepare defensive countermeasures. As such, discussion of the impact of S&T on future NATO operations or vignettes (e.g. the Conjecture Cards presented in the appendices) should not be taken as an indication of current or future NATO S&T research efforts. 1.4 Overview Within the following chapters, an analysis is presented of identified, and militarily relevant S&T trends which may impact NATO capability development and operational challenges over the upcoming 20 years (2020-2040). The approach and key data sources used to conduct this assessment are described in Appendix I. The assessment is presented in three parts: 1. An overview is provided of the general nature of S&T development. This synopsis includes a primer on S&T attention and readiness. Specific EDT areas are identified that are expected to significantly impact NATO over the period 2020-2040 (Chapter 2). These EDTs are presented separately, broadly considering the state and rate of development as well as the military implications. This overview is followed by consideration of critical potential synergies between EDTs, as it is in the overlap between these developments that significant disruptions will occur; 2. The broad strategic context and drivers are outlined that will impact defence S&T development (Chapter 3); and, 3. Separate appendices provide a more detailed exploration of each EDT, drawing heavily upon STO research and technology watch activities. This section also includes Conjecture Cards, short vignettes that describe the potential future application of these technologies. Earlier versions of these cards were used during workshops [14] conducted to support this analysis, and they are added to help contextualise the potential impact of these technologies. An extensive list of useful references is provided in the bibliography at the end of this document. These are also used throughout the body of the text where appropriate. 2. Science & Technology Trends Anticipation: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” - Wayne Gretzky [15] 2.1 S&T Development How can NATO explore, develop and exploit the best, cutting-edge technology able to deliver disruptive military effects for the Alliance? What do we mean by emerging or disruptive S&T. What are these emerging or disruptive technologies or scientific insights? What do they mean for an agile and innovative Alliance? To answer these questions, this chapter provides a summary of the modern technology landscape. For purposes of this report, we narrowly define technologies as: • Emerging: Those technologies or scientific discoveries that are expected to reach maturity in the period 2020-2040; and, are not widely in use currently or whose effects on Alliance defence, security and enterprise functions are not entirely clear. • Disruptive: Those technologies or scientific discoveries that are expected to have a major, or perhaps revolutionary, effect on NATO defence, security or enterprise functions in the period 2020-2040. • Convergent: A combination of technologies that are combined in a novel manner to create a disruptive effect. Not all technologies or scientific discoveries are emergent or disruptive, nor is disruption driven solely by technology [4]. Further, not all emerging technologies will be disruptive; not all disruptive technologies are emergent; and, not all convergent technologies are driven by emerging ones. For this report, we focus on those technologies assessed as most likely to be disruptive over a twenty-year time-frame, including those that have moved beyond the initial exploration phase but have not yet become widely exploited. Understanding the natural pattern of EDT development is a necessary prerequisite in understanding and assessing their potential effects on NATO and the Alliance. 2.1.1 S&T Context The seventh generation military revolution [16] is being driven (once again) by rapid changes in the technological landscape. Human organised conflict (war in its most extreme case) is, in a Clausewitzian sense, a fundamental clash of wills between large social groups (e.g. states, pseudo-states, communities, societies, etc.). During such conflict, whether with peer competitors or asymmetric threats, technology is an edge [17] to be exploited. As democratised technology becomes even more central to human existence, so too will it gain an outsized role in shaping conflict. As noted by General Sir Richard Barrons [18], former commander of Joint Forces Command (UK): “The same wide span of Fourth Industrial Revolution technology (data, processing, connectivity, AI, robotics, bio-sciences, autonomy and so forth) that is changing how we live, work and play will now transform the way war is waged - in a process spanning at least a generation ... Military transformation will largely be about the rapid adoption and adaptation of civil-sector-derived technology and methods in disruptive military applications ... The future of military success will now be owned by those who conceive, design, build and operate combinations of information-based technologies to deliver new combat power.” Within a broad strategic and geopolitical context (see Chapter 3) the nature of conflict is seen to be changing, with general agreement that the transforming technological environment is a significant factor [19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25]. This changing nature of conflict manifests itself in hybrid war [26, 27], hyper-war [28], memetic warfare [29] or next-generation conflict [30]. In each, disruptive technologies are merged with existing technologies and military capabilities to create new ways and means of engaging in conflict. The common factors that link these Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies are that they are all in some way shape or form intelligent, interconnected, distributed and digital (I2D2) in nature. More specifically, and building on [31, 32, 33], we note that the future S&T landscape will be characterised (and at the same time driven) by the following: • Intelligent: Integrated and integral artificial intelligence, analytics and decision capabilities across the technological spectrum. – Autonomy: Artificial intelligence-enabled autonomous systems capable of some level of autonomous decision making. Such autonomous systems may be robotic, platform based or (digital) agent-based. – Humanistic Intelligence: The seamless integration of psycho-social-techno systems supporting enhanced human-machine teaming and synergistic behaviours. – Knowledge Analytics: Advanced analytical methods (including AI) exploring large data sets and advanced mathematics to provide insights, knowledge and advice hitherto impractical. • Interconnected: Exploitation of the network (or mesh) of overlapping real and virtual domains, including sensors, organisations, institutions, individuals, autonomous agents and processes. – Trusted Communications: The use of technologies such as distributed ledger technologies (e.g. blockchain), quantum key distribution (QKD), post-quantum cryptography and AI cyber-agents to ensure trusted interactions and information exchange. – Synergistic Systems: The development of mixed (physical or virtual) complex systems-of-systems allowing for the creation of novel ecosystems (e.g. smart cities). • Distributed: Decentralised and ubiquitous large scale sensing, storage, computation, decision making, research and development. – Edge Computing: Embedding of storage, computation and analytics/AI into agents and objects close to information sources. – Ubiquitous Sensing: Embedding of low (or lower cost) sensors to create large sensor networks across the human-physical-information domains. – Decentralised Production: Exploitation of AI-assisted design, novel materials, and (mixed material) 3D/4D printing technologies, to support just-in-time local digital manufacturing and production. – Democratised S&T: Reducing costs of design and production, increasing computational capabilities and the broad availability of S&T information will increase innovation and the generation of novel science. • Digital: Blending of the human, physical and information domains to create new physiological, psychological, social and cultural realities. – Digital Twin: A digital simulacrum of physical, biological or information entities digitally linked (often in near real-time) to the original, supporting predictive analytics, experimentation and assessment. – Synthetic Realities: The creation of new perceived cognitive or physical realities based on the integration of psycho-socio-technical systems. Such realities may be augmented, virtual, social or cultural in nature. New EDTs do not arrive fully formed, nor are they divorced from the military operational environment in which their use is contemplated. Effort, experimentation and innovation are needed to turn these EDTs into actionable military capabilities, and these, in turn, will force changes to Alliance forces and force structure. Each of the four identified technology characteristics combine to drive a specific military trend (Figure 2.1) [34]: • Intelligent + Distributed ⇒ Autonomous Systems and Agents: Intelligent and, increasingly autonomous systems, are already supplanting and exceeding the capabilities of human forces. Autonomous systems to date have been quite limited, employing fixed rule-sets and various levels of direct human-control. The increased use of AI will enable autonomous systems capable of significantly more sophisticated decision making, self-directed activity and, at the same time, increasingly complex human-machine teaming. Such increased used of intelligent agents will dramatically expand into our synthetic realities, including cyber, battle networks [34, 35, 36] and digital social networks. Autonomous agents will provide rapid analysis, advice and courses-of-action for strategic-operational-tactical planning, allowing for increased OODA (Observe-Orient-Decide-Act) loop effectiveness and bringing an entirely different perspective on old problems unconstrained by old strategies. Such intelligent battle networks have the potential to increase decision speeds to levels that will require new methods of human-machine interaction and visualisation. The resulting competition between battle networks will generate increased evolutionary pressures on algorithms, each seeking an edge or combination of effects that will lead to a decisive victory. Similarly, autonomous vehicles so enabled will increase their effectiveness across the conflict spectrum, creating large mesh sensor and strike networks. • Interconnected + Digital ⇒ Battle Networks: Evolving agile and adaptive mesh C4ISR networks will create deep operational dependencies underlying military action. Such evolving battle networks will increasingly become targets in and of themselves and subject to effects based conflict. This increased reliance on seamless and ubiquitous connectivity will increase the value in targeting such networks (military or civilian) in disinformation, cyber or physical manner. Such attacks may be implemented long before the conflict itself is initiated, and could strike indirectly at logistic, personnel, information, financial or other supporting elements of modern operational and strategic networks. • Interconnected + Distributed ⇒ Expanding Domains: As the operational environment expands to include space, cyber and the broader information sphere, the need to think, plan and operate in a widely dispersed, interconnected and multi-domain manner will become even more critical. The growing numbers and wide distribution of multi-domain sensors, multi-domain missions, and the rising processing capabilities increasingly embedded at the edges of the networks, will present new demands for dominance, counter-domain capabilities, protection, counter-measures, counter-counter-measures and other secondary functions. The increase exploitation of new domains will inevitably lead to the search for domain superiority, with attendant costs and capability demands. • Intelligent + Digital ⇒ Precision Warfare: Increased digitisation across C4ISR capabilities, along with miniaturisation, edge processing and falling costs, have been the underpinning technological developments enabling increasingly intelligent, interconnect and distributed systems. In aggregate, this has dramatically increased the development of precision strike and effects orient capabilities. Swarming and the use of lower-cost cheap precision weaponry has and will continue to put large high-value capabilities at risk, while increased digitalisation opens up new and hitherto unanticipated vulnerabilities. New sensors (e.g. quantum technology-enabled), increased reliance on synthetic realities (virtual, social, mixed, twinned, etc.) will present risks and opportunities. The use of more and more sophisticated analytical tools, leveraging the increased volumes of digital data, will lead to the development of new operational capabilities (e.g. novel hypersonic weapon designs developed using increasingly higher-fidelity computational fluid dynamics models and embedded sensors). AI will change the landscape of warfare, while the availability of digital data will allow distributed and interconnected (autonomous) systems to analyse, adapt and respond. These changes will, in turn, potentially support better decision-making through predictive analytics [37]. All of this will take place in a context of synergistic and symbiotic systems-of-systems, including sensors, societies, and organisations. In this way, EDTs will continue to change the ways and means of conflict for at least a generation, but at the same time will need to integrate and operate alongside existing systems. 2.1.2 Synergy To maintain a military-technological edge and to prevail in future operations, NATO forces must continually evolve, adapt, and innovate in order to be credible, networked, aware, agile, and resilient [24]. Such adaptation is most rapid and disruptive where EDTs work to enable one another or where the human, information or physical domains overlap [38]. Several such critical synergistic connections are identified later in this report. In addition to interconnections between EDTs, it should be noted that many of the issues driving and limiting the effective development of new capabilities are non-technical. Murray [39, 40] notes that: “What matters in the technological adaptation as well as technological innovation is how well new and improved technologies are incorporated into effective and intelligent concepts of fighting: it is not the technological sophistication that matters, rather it is the larger framework.” For active development of EDTs into Alliance capabilities, the implications of culture, concepts, risk-tolerance, organisational structure, policies, treaties, human capital and ethics must be fully appreciated. These factors will need to evolve as much as the technology if EDTs are to be fully developed into new operational capabilities. 2.2 Assessment To understand the state and rate of EDT development, it is necessary to consider several perspectives on each EDT: (1) the potential military impact; (2) the level of attention or hype around a particular technology or scientific area; (3) the current technology readiness level; (4) the time horizon in which the science or technology is expected to be fully mature; (5) the relevance to NATO operational capabilities; and, (6) the S&T domains relevant for enabling research. Such an assessment is problematic as each EDT encompasses many different core aspects, each potentially at a different stage of development. As a result, for this report, each EDT is broken into several areas identified for focused development, or (emerging and disruptive) technology focus areas. 2.2.1 Impact Assessing the potential impact of emerging or disruptive technologies is not a straightforward process. To do so successfully requires consideration of the threat environment (current and future), legal & policy constraints, political factors, investment decisions, as well as estimating the potential for organizational uptake (i.e. entrepreneurial drive and risk tolerance) [41]. These estimates are further compounded if the road to disruption involves complex combinations of such technologies (i.e. synergies) or requires new concepts to be developed. For purposes of this report we follow [41], defining Impact in a somewhat subjective and imprecise manner as (Table 2.1): Table 2.1: EDT Impact. - Moderate: 10 - 50 % Performance: speed, range, accuracy, lethality, survivability, affordability, availability, dependability or other defining capability characteristic - High: 50 - 100 % - Revolutionary: Greater than 100%, or conducting activities or tasks hitherto deemed impractical or impossible Assessments are based on a variety of sources, including a review of previous trends assessments [20, 24, 33, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45], workshop results [14] as well as STO technology watch activities and reports (e.g. [46]). 2.2.2 Attention Technological development is distinctly cyclic on many levels. The most well-known of these cycles is the Gartner Hype Cycle [31] (Figure 2.2), itself based on Howard Fosdick's work on the sociology of technology adoption [47, 48]. During a hype cycle, a successful trending technology will (arguably) ultimately go through five key phases: [50, 51]: • Innovation Trigger: After a long period of supporting research, a potential new technology breakthrough starts to show promise. • Peak of Inflated Expectations: Early publicity produces many success stories — often accompanied by scores of failures. • Trough of Disillusionment: The limitations of the technology become clear, and some implementation efforts fail to produce useful results. • Slope of Enlightenment: With a better understanding of what is practical and where it can be best applied, the potential begin to crystallise and become more widely understood and appreciated. • Plateau of Productivity: Mainstream adoption occurs. With a better understanding of value, applicability and limitations, the technology has found its market. This report assesses technological attention through a review of Gartner technology assessments [31], other technology futures analyses already mentioned, STO technology watch activities, and an analysis of web search activity drawn from Google Trends [54] (see Appendix I.6). 2.2.3 Technological Maturity In general successful S&T proceeds along a developmental path captured in the use of a technology readiness levels (TRL), originally developed by NASA [55, 56], with each step being a potential off-ramp or pause for that particular technology (see Table 2.2). Table 2.2: Technology Readiness Levels. TRL 9: Actual system proven through successful mission operations. TRL 8: Actual system completed and qualified through test and demonstration. TRL 7: System prototype demonstration in a space environment. TRL 6: System/subsystem model or prototype demonstration in a relevant environment. TRL 5: Component and/or breadboard validation in relevant environment. TRL 4: Component and/or breadboard validation in laboratory environment. TRL 3: Analytical and experimental critical function and/or characteristic proof-of-concept. TRL 2: Technology concept and/or application formulated. TRL 1: Basic principles observed and reported. 2.2.4 Capability For NATO, EDTs are primarily of interest through their influence on current and future Alliance defence capabilities. To better connect EDTs to their military impact, each EDT is evaluated for its potential effect on NATO operational capabilities. NATO's operational capability taxonomy ([59] provides a structured list of capabilities and sub-capabilities. An assessment is presented for the first level of the operational taxonomy only: Prepare, Project, Engage, C3, Sustain, Protect, and Inform. (Table 2.3: EDT Impact on NATO Capabilities - Low, Medium, High). 2.2.5 S&T Domains Defence Science is broadly broken into three large domains, encompassing research in the human (including biological), information and physical S&T domains [60, 61]. Linking EDTs to these three major areas of scientific inquiry helps to ensure a holistic approach to research, development and operationalisation of an EDT. (Table 2.4: EDT Connection to S&T Domains - Low, Medium, High). 2.3 Disruptive Technologies 2.3.1 Data: Big Data and Advanced Analytics (BDAA) Big Data describes data that presents significant volume, velocity, variety, veracity and visualisation challenges. Table 2.5: Big Data and Advanced Analytics (BDAA) 2020-2040: - Advanced Analytics: Impact = Revolutionary, Attention = Expectation, TRL = 4, Horizon = 2025 - Communications: Impact = High, Attention = Enlightenment, TRL = 6, Horizon = 2030 - Advanced Decision Making: Impact = Revolutionary, Attention = Disillusionment, TRL = 6, Horizon = 2025 - Sensors: Impact = High, Attention = Expectation, TRL = 4, Horizon = 2030 2.3.2 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Artificial Intelligence (AI) refers to the ability of machines to perform tasks that normally require human intelligence. Table 2.6: Artificial Intelligence: 2020-2040: - Advanced algorithms: Impact = Revolutionary, Attention = Expectations, TRL = 4, Horizon = 2030 - Applied AI: Impact = Revolutionary, Attention = Expectation, TRL = 6, Horizon = 2030 - Human-Machine Symbiosis: Impact = High, Attention = Trigger, TRL = 4, Horizon = 2035 2.3.3 Autonomy Autonomy is the ability of a system to respond to uncertain situations by independently composing and selecting among different courses of action. Table 2.7: Autonomy 2020-2040: - Autonomous Systems: Impact = Revolutionary, Attention = Expectation, TRL = 6, Horizon = 2025 - Human-Machine Teaming: Impact = Revolutionary, Attention = Trigger, TRL = 4, Horizon = 2030 - Autonomous Behaviour: Impact = High, Attention = Expectation, TRL = 4, Horizon = 2030 - Countermeasures: Impact = High, Attention = Disillusionment, TRL = 5, Horizon = 2025 2.3.4 Space Technologies (ST) Space is generally considered to begin 90 - 100 km above sea-level. Table 2.8: Space (Systems) 2020-2040: - Platforms: Impact = Moderate, Attention = Expectation, TRL = 6, Horizon = 2025 - Operations: Impact = Moderate, Attention = Expectation, TRL = 5, Horizon = 2030 - Sensors: Impact = High, Attention = Trigger, TRL = 3, Horizon = 2035 2.3.5 Hypersonic (Weapon Systems) (HWS) Advanced Hypersonic Weapons Systems operate at speeds greater than Mach 5 (6125 kph). Table 2.9: Hypersonic (Systems) 2020-2040: - Platforms and Propulsion: Impact = High, Attention = Trigger, TRL = 5, Horizon = 2025 - Countermeasures: Impact = High, Attention = Trigger, TRL = 3, Horizon = 2030 2.4 Emergent Technologies 2.4.1 Quantum (Technologies) (QT) Table 2.10: Quantum 2020-2040: - Communication: Impact = High, Attention = Trigger, TRL = 5, Horizon = 2030 - Information Science: Impact = Revolutionary, Attention = Trigger, TRL = 4, Horizon = 2035 - Precision Navigation: Impact = High, Attention = Disillusionment, TRL = 6, Horizon = 2025 - Sensors: Impact = Moderate, Attention = Trigger, TRL = 3, Horizon = 2040 2.4.2 Bio-(& Human Enhancement) Technologies (BHET) Table 2.11: Biotechnologies and Human Enhancement 2020-2040: - Bioinformatics: Impact = Moderate, Attention = Expectation, TRL = 6, Horizon = 2025 - Human Augmentation: Impact = High, Attention = Expectation, TRL = 5, Horizon = 2030 - Medical Countermeasures: Impact = High, Attention = Trigger, TRL = 4, Horizon = 2030 - Synthetic Biology: Impact = High, Attention = Trigger, TRL = 6, Horizon = 2025 2.4.3 (Novel) Materials and Manufacturing (NMM) Table 2.12: (Novel) Materials 2020-2040: - Novel Materials: Impact = High, Attention = Trigger, TRL = 2, Horizon = 2040 - Additive Manufacturing: Impact = Moderate, Attention = Enlightenment, TRL = 7, Horizon = 2025 - Energy Storage: Impact = Moderate, Attention = Trigger, TRL = 5, Horizon = 2030 2.5 Convergence, Inter-Dependencies and Synergies • Data-AI-Autonomy • Data-Quantum • Space-Hypersonics-Materials • Space-Quantum • Data-AI-Biotechnologies • Data-AI-Materials 2.6 Countering EDT Threats RED forces are complex and adaptive. Alliance nations must conduct appropriate S&T to develop countermeasures across physical, human, and information domains. 2.7 Summary Adapting to rapid S&T advances is imperative. As noted by Possony and Pournelle: “The primary fact about technology in the twentieth century is that it has a momentum of its own... You may swim with the stream, exploiting every aspect of technology to its fullest; you may attempt to crawl out on the bank and watch the rest of the world go past, or you can attempt to swim against the stream and 'put the genie back in the bottle'...” 3. Contextual Trends “Le présent accouche, dit-on, de l'avenir.” - Voltaire [115] 3.1 Introduction S&T developments do not take place in a vacuum; they are driven by technological, individual, economic, societal and organisational needs and trends. In turn, these S&T developments drive events that fundamentally change societies/individuals and force the evolution of organisations and governments. 3.2 Innovation and Investment Driven by global trends, specific technological advances, breakthroughs, applications and ultimately military capabilities may be generated through multiple innovation paths: novel use of old technologies; application of new technologies to old problems; application of modern science to develop novel tools; and creative convergence. High levels of investment drive rapid technological development. In 2020, Bloomberg Innovation Index ranked the top 60 innovative countries, where the U.S. fell to 9th place while China rose to 15th place. Investment in defence S&T remains substantial, but over the last 20 years, drivers for S&T development have resided more and more outside the Defence and Security community in the commercial realm. 3.3 Strategic Drivers 3.3.1 The Operational Environment (Space & Info-sphere, Arctic, Urban) - The Space Domain: Increasingly contested, congested, competitive and commercial. Declared an operational domain by NATO. - The Infosphere (Cyber, Electronic Warfare (EW), and the Electromagnetic (EM) Spectrum): Driven by digitisation and virtualisation, critical for hybrid warfare. - The Arctic: Reemerged as an area of strategic importance due to resource development, new shipping routes, and Russian military resurgence. - The Urban Theatre: Projected that by 2050 68% of world population will live in urban areas; mega-cities pose complex multi-dimensional and hybrid operational challenges. 3.3.2 Culture, Ethics & Law Rapid technology advances outpace lagging legal frameworks, social norms, and regulations. Key issues include right-to-repair, intellectual property restrictions, algorithmic transparency/explainability, and dual-use proliferation (e.g. DIY synthetic biology). 3.3.3 The Environment Climate change will be a major disruptive force driving resource competition, mass migration (over 150 million people living on land below high-tide mark by 2050), and potential conflicts. 3.3.4 Miscellaneous Drivers - The Changing Nature of Work - Education and personalised training - Automated Logistics - Food and Water Technologies - Human Capital & demographic shifts - Changing Global Economic Framework (bifurcation into technological silos) - Infectious Diseases and Pandemics 3.4 Defence and Security Great power competition and hybrid threats characterize the evolving landscape, as outlined in the 2019 NATO London Summit Declaration. 4. Conclusion “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” - Amara's law [191]. Conflict is enduring, but the nature of that conflict continues to change, driven in no small measure by advances in technology, tools and scientific understanding. This evolution will be a vital feature of the future battlespace or zones of conflict, whether physical or virtual. These evolving multi-domain complex operational spaces will have significant implications for the development and future employment of the Alliance's instruments of power. If NATO is to develop a new strategy of technology it must do so in the context of evolving geographic, geopolitical and military domains, which in themselves are driven in no small part by technologies that are increasingly intelligent, interconnected, distributed and digital. This report has considered how EDTs will disrupt, degrade and enable NATO military capabilities in the 2020-2040 timeframe. Such characteristics of modern technologies are drivers of the current evolution and revolution in data, AI, autonomy, space, quantum, hypersonics, biotechnologies and materials. Alone or in combination, they define the technological edge necessary for NATO's operational and organisational effectiveness. How quickly, in what order, and ultimately how successful these technologies will be, or what threats they will present, is yet to be determined. However, long term forecasts of military technologies provide a useful exercise while offering a guide to prioritising capability and technology investments. The techno-policy, legal and ethical challenges that they present NATO can not be overstated. Understanding why they present a problem or opportunity, how they are expected to manifest, and what this will mean to the Alliance is an excellent first step and will ensure NATO remains technologically prepared and operationally relevant. Appendix A: Data Definition: Big Data describes data that presents significant volume, velocity, variety, veracity and visualisation challenges. Advanced (Data) Analytics describes advanced analytical methods for making sense of and visualising large volumes of information. Key Concepts & Enablers: - 5Vs: Volume, Velocity, Variety, Veracity, Visualisation. - Ubiquitous sensing, smart textiles, Over-The-Horizon (OTH) passive radar, computational imaging, compressive sensing, microwave photonics. - Social media and socio-cognitive dynamics. - Ubiquitous and edge computing, distributed ledger technologies (blockchain), digital twins. Military Implications: - BLUE: Enhanced ISR, real-time situational awareness (SA), predictive logistics, integrated munition health management, enhanced training, enterprise analytics. - RED: Decision speed parity/advantage, sophisticated hybrid/memetic warfare, targeting vulnerabilities, tracking camouflaged/submerged assets. - Interoperability: Technical obsolescence, network spectrum allocation, data sharing and security standards. Conjecture Cards: - A.1 Real-Time Video Feeds - A.2 Information Integrity - A.3 Commercial Networks - A.4 Situational Awareness - A.5 Trusted Systems - A.6 Assured Connectivity - A.7 Courses of Action - A.8 Global Intelligence - A.9 Algorithmic Advantage Appendix B: Artificial Intelligence Definition: Artificial Intelligence (AI) refers to the ability of machines to perform tasks that normally require human intelligence – recognizing patterns, learning from experience, drawing conclusions, making predictions, or taking action. Key Evolution Waves: - First Wave: Expert knowledge / rules-based criteria & logical reasoning. - Second Wave: Statistical & machine learning (voice recognition, NLP, computer vision, deep learning). - Third Wave: Contextual adaptation, abstraction, explanation, neuromorphic & probabilistic computing. Military Implications: - BLUE: C4ISR data fusion, AI-assisted decision aids/COA generation, autonomous platform control/swarming, CBRN detection, field medical diagnostics, logistics optimization. - RED: Cyber attacks on AI pipelines, deep fakes and synthetic media, unpredictable/aberrant autonomous actions unconstrained by ethical ROEs, smart IEDs. - Interoperability: Verification, validation & accreditation (VV&A), explainable AI (XAI) standards, data taxonomy compatibility. Conjecture Cards: - B.1 Detect/Generate Fake Media - B.2 Virtual Command Advisor - B.3 Automated Communication - B.4 Spoof AI Systems - B.5 Deep Fakes - B.6 Optimise Vehicle Use - B.7 Disruptive Behaviour - B.8 Precision Engagement - B.9 Automated Targeting Appendix C: Autonomy Definition: Autonomy is the ability of a system to respond to uncertain situations by independently composing and selecting among different courses of action in order to accomplish goals based on knowledge and a contextual understanding. Key Focus Areas: - UxVs (UAV, UCAV, UUV, USV, UGV) across air, sea, land, space, and cyber. - Human-Machine Teaming: Reducing cognitive load, loyal wingman concepts, intuitive interfaces. - Swarming: Low-cost, expendable, networked mass saturation of enemy defenses. - Countermeasures: DEW, high power radio frequency (HPRF) weapons, counter-swarms. Military Implications: - Replaces personnel in '4D' tasks (Dull, Dirty, Dangerous, Dear). - Transforms force structures, accelerates decision/strike cycles, introduces new legal/ethical challenges across the kill-chain. Conjecture Cards: - C.1 Access Inaccessible Areas - C.2 Repurpose Commercial Systems - C.3 Replace the Soldiers - C.4 Cyber Immune System - C.5 Sustainment - C.6 Autonomous Lethal Weapons - C.7 Deploy a Swarm - C.8 Active Defense System - C.9 Driverless Transportation Appendix D: Quantum Technologies Definition: Technologies exploiting quantum physics at the atomic and sub-atomic scale, particularly entanglement and superposition, across cryptography, computing, precision navigation and timing, sensing, and materials. Key Focus Areas: - Quantum Computing: Quantum Annealers, Analog Simulators, Universal Quantum Computers. - Quantum Sensing: Ultra-sensitive gravimetric, magnetic, acoustic, and quantum radar (rendering stealth and undersea domains transparent). - Quantum PNT: Ultra-precise atomic clocks and inertial navigation for GPS-denied environments. - Quantum Communications & Cryptography: Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) and post-quantum encryption. Conjecture Cards: - D.1 Transparent Ocean - D.2 Quantum Cryptography - D.3 Quantum Radar - D.4 Computational Dominance - D.5 GPS Denied Environment - D.6 Precision Navigation - D.7 Quantum Illumination - D.8 Quantum Communications - D.9 Chemistry & Materials Appendix E: Space Technologies Definition: Technologies exploiting or contending with the unique space environment (>90-100 km altitude), characterized by global view, micro-gravity, near-vacuum, and severe temperature/radiation. Key Focus Areas: - Smallsats, cubesats, mega-constellations, and responsive launch. - On-orbit robotic servicing, assembly, refuelling, and manufacturing. - Space-based C4ISR: Sub-terahertz radar, passive coherent location (PCL), quantum optical sensors. - Counter-space & Resilience: Defending against ASAT, laser dazzling, cyber hijacking, space debris. Conjecture Cards: - E.1 Star Wars Satellites - E.2 Satellite - E.3 Solar Space Power - E.4 Commercial Space ISR - E.5 Instant launch - E.6 Global radar - E.7 Orbiting Base - E.8 Weaponized Space Debris - E.9 Deep insertion Appendix F: Hypersonics Definition: Advanced weapon and flight systems operating within the atmosphere at speeds exceeding Mach 5 (6125 kph), where atmospheric dissociation and extreme heat loads occur. Key Categories: 1. Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGV): Boosted by rockets, gliding unpowered at Mach 5-25. 2. Hypersonic Cruise Missiles (HCM): Powered by air-breathing scramjets at Mach 6-8. 3. Hypersonic Aircraft: Manned or unmanned reusable high-speed platforms. Military Implications: - Radical compression of warning and reaction times (ITW&AA). - High kinetic strike lethality, penetration of conventional air/missile defense belts. - Defense requires advanced directed energy weapons (DEW), space-based tracking/interceptors, or high-velocity projectile rail guns. Conjecture Cards: - F.1 Energy Beam Self Defense - F.2 Hypersonic Missile - F.3 Super Destructive Projectiles - F.4 Underwater Launch - F.5 Very Fast Air - F.6 Hypersonic Swarms - F.7 Propulsion and Materials - F.8 Defensive Shield - F.9 EM Countermeasures Appendix G: Biotechnology & Human Enhancement Definition: Technologies utilizing living systems, organisms, or biological components, alongside biomedical interventions to enhance human physiological, cognitive, and social capabilities beyond baseline health. Key Research Domains: 1. Bioinformatics & Biosensors: Wearable real-time physiological sensors, smart textiles, DNA computing. 2. Human Augmentation: Exoskeletons, neural interfaces, sensory expansion (ocular/auditory), pharmacological cognitive enhancement. 3. Medical Countermeasures: Rapid CBRN diagnostic and vaccine development, synthetic biology treatments, trauma care. 4. Synthetic Biology: AI-designed biological agents, xenobots, engineered living sensors. Conjecture Cards: - G.1 Super Sensings - G.2 Body Self-Repair - G.3 Bio-Databases - G.4 Human-Machine - G.5 Chem or Bio Analysis - G.6 Health Monitoring - G.7 Train in Reality - G.8 Psychotic Effects - G.9 Genetic Targeting Appendix H: Novel Materials and Manufacturing Definition: Artificial materials with novel mechanical, chemical, optical, or electrical properties (e.g., 2-D materials like graphene, topological insulators), and additive/agile manufacturing methods (3D/4D printing). Key Focus Areas: - 2-D Materials: Graphene, phosphorene, boron nitride for lightweight armour, high-temperature coatings, radar absorption, flexible electronics, and supercapacitors. - Additive Manufacturing (3D/4D Printing): On-demand, in-theatre production of replacement parts, complex rocket engine components, and reactive 4D structures. - Energy Harvesting & Storage: Solid-state batteries, nanotech energy storage, and renewables. Conjecture Cards: - H.1 Synthetic Biology - H.2 Smartlite Armor - H.3 Reduce Energy Use - H.4 Self-Charging Batteries - H.5 Graphene - H.6 Temporary Shelters - H.7 Platform Printing - H.8 Textured Explosives - H.9 Spider climbing Appendix I: Methodology Methodological sources and tools utilized: - Prior NATO Reports: Tech Trends Report 2017, Framework for Future Alliance Operations (FFAO 2018), Technology Trends Survey (2015), EDT Roadmap (2019). - STO Technology Watch: Technology Watch Cards (TWC), Von Kármán Horizon Scans (vKHS), Collaborative Programme of Work (CPoW) S&T Priorities & Targets of Emphasis (TOE). - S&T Expert Workshops and Alliance/Partner Research Programs. - Quantitative Attention Analysis using Google Trends and Gartner Hype Cycles (2018-2019). - Meta-analyses of open-source defense, academic, and industrial literature. Selected list of Symbols, Abbreviations and Acronyms: - A2AD / A2/AD: Anti-Access and Area Denial - ACT: Allied Command Transformation - AGI: Artificial General Intelligence - AI: Artificial Intelligence - AIoT: Artificial Intelligence of Things - AM: Additive Manufacturing - ASAT: Anti-Satellite Weapons - ASW: Anti-Submarine Warfare - BDAA: Big Data and Advanced Analytics - BHET: Bio and Human Enhancement Technologies - C4ISR: Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance - CBRN / CBRNE: Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and Explosive - CI: Computational Imaging - COA: Courses of Action - CRISPR: Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats - DEW: Directed Energy Weapon - EDT: Emerging And/Or Disruptive Technology - ELINT: Electronic Intelligence - EW: Electronic Warfare - HALE: High Altitude Long Endurance - HCM: Hypersonic Cruise Missile - HGV: Hypersonic Glide Vehicle - I2D2: Intelligent, Interconnected, Distributed & Digital - ISR: Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance - ISTAR: Intelligence, Surveillance, Targeting and Reconnaissance - ITW&AA: Integrated Tactical Warning and Attack Assessment - LEO / MEO / GEO: Low / Medium / Geosynchronous Earth Orbit - OODA: Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act - PNT: Positioning, Navigation and Timing - QKD: Quantum Key Distribution - RAS: Robotics and Autonomous Systems - STO: Science & Technology Organization - TRL: Technology Readiness Levels - UAV / UCAV / UGV / USV / UUV / UxV: Unmanned Vehicles (Air / Combat Air / Ground / Surface / Underwater / Any) - VV&A: Verification, Validation, & Accreditation